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Challenges with Using PERT for Estimating

This post was modified from one I developed several years ago for the Mercure AACE 2013 program I took, called W5_PM_PERT-Challenges. I am still surprised that with the number of project managers I meet who recommend this technique, which effectively puts the Flaw of Averages on steroids. This post is not specifically about sustainable change […]

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Sustainable Estimating

The only certainty is that nothing is certain. Pliny the Elder, Roman scholar, 23-79 CE Our culture encodes a strong bias either to neglect or ignore variation. We tend to focus instead on measures of central tendency, and as a result we make some terrible mistakes, often with considerable practical import. Stephen Jay Gould, naturalist, […]

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